The figures are out for November. The latest figures follow the August convocation of the North American Lutheran Church (NALC), the Lutheran CORE spawned denomination that promises a “realignment of North American Lutheranism”. One regular commenter here (an ELCA critic) predicted that the months following the NALC startup would see a short term surge in ELCA congregational votes followed by a gradual withering down of congregational defections.
The actual figures don’t suggest any significant surge and it is too early to discern whether the process will slow:
as of 11/3/10, congregations have taken a total of 629 first votes [representing 596 congregations since some congregations have taken multiple first votes]. Of the first votes taken, 431 passed and 198 failed. 308 congregations have taken second votes (and one congregation has taken two second votes!) Of the total of 309 second votes; 291 passed and 18 failed.
For purposes of quantifying any recent surge, I think the “first vote” figure is most illustrative. As of Sept 2, 529 first votes had been recorded, so exactly 100 new first votes occurred in the last two months. This is slightly higher but similar to the monthly pace of first votes during the first year following the ELCA churchwide assembly of 2009 (CWA09). On the other hand, these figures do not suggest any slowing of the pace, either.
According to the NALC website, the dissident denomination lists forty-four member congregations at this time.